Swiatek v Pegula in WTA Finals: facts and stats behind crucial Cancun clash

It’s not just one match – it’s a title with huge ramifications

November 6, 2023

WTA Finals •Final • completed

When asked by reporters how she would approach the WTA Finals showdown with Jessica Pegula, Iga Swiatek replied: “I can’t truly tell you the keys.”

There is plenty riding on it, though. Their match in Cancun has bigger ramifications than just one title.

Here are some of the facts and statistics ahead of a crucial encounter.

Swiatek or Sabalenka for year-end No 1

If Swiatek wins, she will be the WTA year-end No 1. She took out the current top-ranked woman, Aryna Sabalenka, in the semi-final, meaning that the reigning world No 1 has won the title at the WTA Finals only once in the last eight editions of the tournament (2019, Ash Barty).

Two players on irresistible form

Before this year only two players have reached the final without dropping a set – 2007 Justine Henin and 2012 Serena Williams (who went on to win the title). Neither Swiatek nor Pegula has yet dropped a set – so something has to give.

Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula shake hands at the 2023 United Cup (Imago/Panoramic)

Swiatek leads their head-to-head 5-3 – but Pegula won their most recent match. Here are their previous meetings:

2023 Montreal semi-final: Pegula 6-2, 6-7 (4), 6-4
2023 Doha final: Swiatek 6-3, 6-0
2023 United Cup: Pegula 6-2, 6-2
2022 San Diego semi-final: Swiatek 4-6, 6-2, 6-2
2022 US Open quarter-final: Swiatek 6-3, 7-6 (4)
2022 Roland-Garros quarter-final: Swiatek 6-3, 6-2
2022 Miami semi-final: Swiatek 6-2, 7-5
2019 Washington DC round of 16: Pegula 5-7, 6-4, 6-1

Since the round robin format was re-introduced in 2003, a player with a 3-0 record in the group stage
has gone on to win the title eight times, most recently in 2018 (Elina Svitolina). Whoever wins on Monday will be the ninth player to do it.

Sizzling Swiatek

Against Top 10 opponents in 2023, Swiatek now owns a 12-6 record; the only player to notch ten Top 10 wins this season. Currently, she is on a ten-match win streak after winning the Beijing title, beating Wimbledon champion Marketa Vondrousova, US Open champion Coco Gauff and Wimbledon finalist Ons Jabeur in the round robin stage in Cancun, and world No 1 and Australian Open champion Sabalenka in the semi-final.

Pegula in prime form

Pegula is the first American to reach the final at the WTA Finals since Sloane Stephens in 2018. She is only the fourth American to do it since the reintroduction of the round robin format in 2003, after Stephens, Serena Williams and Venus Williams.

Pegula is 51-0 in 2023 after winning the opening set, including in the Billie Jean King Cup. Since 2000, only two players have finished a season 50+-0 after taking the first set (excluding retirements): Lindsay Davenport (53-0, 2001) and Victoria Azarenka (60-0, 2012).