Gauff and Sabalenka battling for No 2 ranking in Rome ahead of crucial Roland-Garros seedings
The American has a chance to overtake Sabalenka in the WTA rankings at this fortnight’s Italian Open, with crucial repercussions for seedings at Roland-Garros
Coco Gauff in action on clay in Rome, 2021 (Panoramic)
All the recent talk regarding the ‘Big Three’ of women’s tennis must be somewhat galling for Coco Gauff.
After all, she is in fact the current world No 3. Indeed, rankings-wise, she sits closer to second-placed Aryna Sabalenka than she does to fourth-placed Elena Rybakina, while Iga Swiatek remains well out in front of all three.
Gauff is also the reigning US Open champion, while Rybakina is the only one of the top four not to currently hold a Grand Slam title.
Given this, it is understandable if Gauff feels a little hard done by after all the recent hype surrounding her nearest three rivals – not that she has given any indication that she does feel this way.
Perhaps recency bias is at play here. But it is difficult to escape the fact that, while technically third in the world, there is a reason why Gauff is being left out of the conversation currently.
If looking at the 2024 season rankings race, for example, then Swiatek, Rybakina and Sabalenka lead it – in that order – by some margin, while Gauff currently sits a long way back in fifth. Given that we are over a third of the way through the season now, this is a significant indicator of who the leading players in the world actually are.
However, the official rankings themselves do not lie. Gauff is third because she deserves to be there, many of those points were accrued when she spectacularly won the US Open last September.
She has a golden chance at this fortnight’s Italian Open to respond to some of the recent intimations that she is the world No 3 in name only.
Gauff can leapfrog world No 2 Sabalenka in Rome – something which would be more than just symbolically significant.
Should the American climb to second in the world, it would mean a No 2 seeding at this year’s upcoming Roland-Garros.
This is of material value, because whoever is the third seed in Paris will be projected to face world No 1 and two-time defending champion Swiatek in the semi-finals.
While facing Rybakina in the last four would arguably not be a much easier proposition, there is no question that all in the field want to avoid Iga for as long as they possibly can.
how can gauff leapfrog sabalenka in rome?
So, with this in mind, what exactly does Gauff need to achieve in Rome to overtake the Belarusian in the WTA rankings?
Well, put simply, Gauff needs to reach at least the semi-finals of the tournament and then also better whatever Sabalenka’s result is.
So, if Gauff reaches the last four and Sabalenka loses before the quarter-finals, the American will become the new world No 2.
If Sabalenka does reach either the quarter-finals or the semi-finals, then Gauff will have to go one better by reaching the final.
Should the Belarusian make the final, then Gauff will then need to beat her in that final to win the tournament and clinch the No 2 spot.
If she did so, it would be a career-high ranking for the US Open champion, and she’d arrive in Paris knowing the earliest she could meet Swiatek would be in the final.
This is eminently achievable for the American, although at first glance it does not look entirely likely given that Gauff has not been past the round of 16 in Rome since 2021. Last year, she lost in the third round, while Sabalenka didn’t fair any better, losing to Kenin in the round of 64.
Still, Gauff has added incentive this season to put together her best Italian Open campaign in three years. While earning the second seed at Roland-Garros would be an excellent achievement, perhaps being left out of the conversation in recent weeks will provide even greater motivation.
After all, this is a young woman who used the petrol of online criticism to ignite a successful US Open title run last September.
If anyone can turn negative discourse into success, it is Coco Gauff.
