Sabalenka snaps Rybakina’s clay winning streak, sets Madrid final rematch with Swiatek

A lot of the numbers were working in Elena Rybakina’s favour – and so was the run of play through a set and a half – during Thursday’s night’s second Madrid Open women’s semi-final, but two-time Madrid champion Aryna Sabalenka had other ideas. The defending (and two-time) champion proved too tough to die as she rallied from a set and a break down and snapped her rival’s 16-match clay-court winning streak to reach the final, 1-6, 7-5, 7-6(5). 

How did Sabalenka flip the script on the WTA’s 2024 win leader in such fine fashion?

“Honestly, I don’t know,” she said. “I was just trying to do my best, trying to fight for every point. I was hoping that I’ll have opportunity to turn this match around, and yeah, super happy that I was able to do that.

“Happy with this tough match and with this tough win.”

Sabalenka will face Iga Swiatek in a rematch of last year’s Madrid final, as the Belarusian bids to become the second woman in Madrid Open history to claim three titles. She is 17-3 lifetime in the Spanish capital.

The world No 2 has now won 11 matches in succession at the Madrid Open.

Rybakina had her chances to win the contest in straight sets, serving for the match at 6-1, 5-4, but missed an easy forehand at 30-all and was broken on the next point for 5-5.

“Of course it’s pity to lose,” Rybakina said. “I mean, I still have this ball on top of the net at 5-4, 30-All. Of course it’s pity when you have this opportunity. But, yeah, Aryna played well. Even in the second set she raised the level from the first one, so it was not easy, but yeah, it is what it is.”

Eventually Sabalenka would convert her third set point two games later, when Rybakina netted a forehand. 

From there, Sabalenka and Rybakina would play a deciding-set tiebreak for the first time in their nine-match history. 

The pair of elite ball-strikers served flawlessly in the deciding set, each raising their level to dominate the court behind their first and second offerings, but when it came down to crunch time it was Sabalenka who delivered the goods in the third-set.

Rybakina was the first player to get to deuce on return, and she parlayed that opportunity into a pair of break points in the 11th game, but Sabalenka held firm.

In the final set tiebreak Sabalenka jumped out to an early lead and got the job finished on her third match point, closing the victory in two hours and 19 minutes and snapping Rybakina’s run of 12 consecutive deciding sets won, which dated back to her loss to Anna Blinkova in the second round of this year’s Australian Open. 

Sabalenka: Rybakina’s third-set kryptonite

Rybakina has been a queen of clutch in 2024, winning 12 consecutive sets, but she had never defeated Sabalenka before in a third set. In fact, all five of Sabalenka’s previous wins over Rybakina came in three sets, and today’s triumph means that Sabalenka is now 6-0 lifetime in deciders against her rival.

Sabalenka now leads the lifetime head-to-head against Rybakina 6-3 – all three of Rybakina’s wins have come in straight sets.

Swiatek and Sabalenka have met nine times and it is the Pole who owns the 6-3 lifetime edge. The pair have split their last four meetings, and it was Sabalenka who triumphed over Swiatek in last year’s Madrid final, 6-3, 3-6, 6-3.

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