US Open: the eight questions that are being asked (and our own answers)

The 2023 US Open kicks off this Monday, and as with every Grand Slam, it brings with it the usual flood of questions. We’ve listed the main ones here. The answers, however, are our own!

Arthur-Ashe Stadium, US Open | © Antoine Couvercelle / Panoramic

Rémi Bourrières

August 26, 2023

US Open •First round • completed

See draw

C. AlcarazvsD. Koepfer

1. So – Alcaraz or Djokovic?

Djokovic. We’re not really saying this because of the result of their final in Cincinnati, which went in the Serb’s favour but which would have deserved a draw and shouldn’t weigh too heavily psychologically. No, it’s simply a question of the two men’s draw, which looks much more accessible for Djokovic than for Alcaraz, whose theoretical sequence of Sinner (or Zverev) in the quarters, Medvedev in the semis and finally Djokovic in the final could wear him out – all the more so as the Spaniard sometimes has the “fault” of dropping a few sets here and there along the way, and while he miraculously escaped three five-set matches last year, it’s the kind of feat he’ll find hard to repeat.

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Tennis Majors

And for the superstitious, let’s not forget that Alcaraz is the defending champion and that the US Open is the tournament where it’s hardest to retain your title. The last man to do so was Roger Federer, in 2008.

2. Will we get an Alcaraz v Djokovic final again?

No. We write “no” with a terrible urge to say “yes”. Basically, more to ward off bad luck than anything else. But the prospect of this “ideal” final between the world’s two best male players is almost too much to expect, almost too much to hope for, in short almost too good to be true. We want to believe in happiness, but the US Open is a tournament so full of pitfalls, with its muggy heat, torrid atmosphere and constant distractions, that we’re afraid that something will go wrong somewhere, at one time or another.

It’s worth remembering that Djokovic himself has cracked on three previous occasions: withdrawal in 2019, disqualification in 2020, a nervous breakdown in the final in 2021 (and denied entry in 2022). The US Open really is a tournament where things never quite go to plan…

3. Will there be a new Grand Slam semi-finalist in the men’s singles?

Yes, the “partial” end of the Big Three has left some room for others: last year, three of the four semi-finalists (Carlos Alcaraz, Karen Khachanov and Frances Tiafoe) reached the last four of a Grand Slam for the first time. And in 2021, it was Felix Auger-Aliassime who took on the role of newcomer. In short, the US Open is also a tournament of possibilities for rookies.

Yet, behind Alcaraz and Djokovic, and perhaps Sinner too, none of the world’s best players has given any guarantees in recent weeks (euphemism), not even the 2021 winner Daniil Medvedev or the outgoing finalist Casper Ruud, and even less Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has never succeeded at the US Open.

Tennis Majors

So there’s room for another Grand Slam semi-finalist. Why not the new world No 4 Holger Rune, despite his recent back injury, an Andrey Rublev, a Taylor Fritz, or an even bigger surprise?

4. Will Iga Swiatek defend her title?

No. For the women too, the US Open is a tournament where it’s not easy to hold on to your title, with no player having managed it since Serena Williams, victorious between 2012 and 2014. And it’s also a tournament that has delivered quite a few surprises in the recent past, from Naomi Osaka in 2018 to Emma Raducanu in 2021 via Bianca Andreescu in 2019.

During her media day, the Polish player acknowledged the added difficulty of having to defend both her crown and her position as world No 1 – even though she managed it very well at Roland-Garros – and recently made no secret of her fatigue. As for her draw, it looks as if she’ll make it all the way to the quarter-finals, where she could meet the summer’s hit, Coco Gauff, who just beat her for the first time in the Cincinnati semi-finals. No easy task, even if Iga remains the clear favourite.

Tennis Majors

5. Will Aryna Sabalenka finally be the world No 1 after the US Open?

Yes. She’s been hanging around for months. She missed the target by just one match at Wimbledon, and that semi-final loss to Ons Jabeur when she had the match in her hands. Unless she considers the prospect of becoming queen to be too much for her, Aryna Sabalenka is bound to take the top spot in the end.

This time, however, she’s closer than ever: she’ll be a virtual No 1 when the tournament kicks off, so she’ll have to do just as well as Iga Swiatek to dethrone her. Considering her Grand Slam consistency – she’s the only player to have reached the last four of the last four major tournaments – and the playing conditions at the US Open, which are perfectly suited to her game, it’s well within her grasp, despite a draw that looks a hair more challenging than her rival’s.

6. Will the women’s title go to a player outside the Top 10?

No. We’d reached that point, welcoming the return of a certain stability at the helm of women’s tennis, when all of a sudden: abracadabra! Out of nowhere, Marketa Vondrousova became the first non-seeded player to triumph at Wimbledon.

However, it took a series of favourable circumstances for the Czech to get there (a miracle against Jessica Pegula, the elimination of Iga Swiatek, Elina Svitolina’s fatigue, Ons Jabeur’s collapse…), and we’re willing to believe in the accident theory. From now on, the women’s tennis elite seems too firmly established to let a second consecutive Grand Slam slip through their fingers.

Tennis Majors

Behind the two favourites Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka, players like Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula have asserted themselves this summer, as has Karolina Muchova. And let’s not forget Elena Rybakina, despite a number of health problems this summer, or Ons Jabeur, despite losing her first three major finals… or Marketa Vondrousova herself, who is now in the top 10.

7. Will there be a British man in the second week?

No. Cameron Norrie has struggled this year – although he’s still a Top 20 stalwart – and he’d have to go some to equal his best-ever run at Flushing Meadows – last year’s fourth-round appearance. Dan Evans has also reached the fourth round before, but with his topsy-turvy performances one can’t count on him to make it through to the second week. Jack Draper is still en route back from injury, as is Andy Murray, who’s been struggling with an abdominal problem.

8. Can Caroline Garcia repeat her run to the semi-final?

No. We’re willing to believe in the American dream, but only up to a point. Unlike in 2022, when she relied on a killer summer, culminating in a triumph in Cincinnati, to reach her first Grand Slam semi-final in New York, Caroline Garcia arrives this year weighed down with too many doubts and uncertainties to repeat her performance.