Popyrin’s improving return could be the key against Djokovic

The Australian has been winning a higher percentage of points on second serve and is high on confidence

Zuma/Panoramic

August 30, 2024

Novak Djokovic and Alexei Popyrin have already played each other twice in Grand Slams this year, two close four-set matches in which the Australian caused the 24-times major winner some real problems.

After his emotional, brilliant Olympics victory, Djokovic wants that all-time record of 25 Grand Slam wins and is many people’s favourite to do just that.

Scratchy in his first two matches, he knows he will need to improve against an opponent who has made life tough for him and the Aussie has the tools to push him hard when they play in the third round of the US Open on Friday.

Serve CRUCIAL for BOTH MEN

You could probably say this about the majority of matches but the serve is going to be crucial and it almost goes without saying that if Popyrin is going to win, he’ll need to serve at his very best.

At 6ft 5in, the 25-year-old has one of the best serves in the game. In his first two matches, he’s hit 27 aces – 11th overall – but when he’s found the court with his first serve, he’s tied first in terms of unreturnable serves, at 58 percent.

Djokovic, by his own admission, has been “awful” on serve in his first two matches, finding the court with just 47 percent of his deliveries. Better news for the world No 2 is that he’s won 74 percent of points on first serve and his second serve is holding up well, at an average of 53 percent. That’s actually better than Popyrin, who stands at 51 percent, although he’s won 87 percent of points on first serve (tied third).

The Popyrin return and forehand

Everyone knows that Djokovic is the best returner in the world and just as well, as without that, he would have really struggled in his first two rounds, thanks to the unusually poor level of serving he managed.

But Popyrin’s return has also improved of late, as he showed when winning the Montreal Masters earlier this month, the first Australian to win at the 1000 level since Lleyton Hewitt in 2003.

History would suggest that he will improve as the tournament goes on but Popyrin’s return has improved to the extent where it has become a strength.

In Montreal, as charted by Game Insight Group, Popyrin raised his return game well beyond his 12-month average, in terms of second serve return points won. Winning 46 percent on average heading into Montreal, his last four rounds saw him go 49 percent, 52 percent, 63 percent and then, in the final against Andrey Rublev, a stunning 65 percent.

In his two rounds to date, he stands at a whopping 69 percent, which bodes well, especially if Djokovic has another bad day on serve. All in all, reasons for optimism for the Aussie, even if he, like everyone else on Tour, knows what the former world No 1 is capable of.

Moreover, Popyrin’s forehand has been a huge weapon. In Montreal, the Aussie had huge success going “inside-in”, as the graphic from TennisViz shows.

Previous matches important

Djokovic may have won both of their slam matches earlier this year, at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and there’s no question that the Serbian has a massive advantage in experience at this level.

But in Melbourne, Popyrin had two set points to take it to a decider and at Wimbledon he was right there for four sets. That experience, knowing what it’s like to play Djokovic on the biggest, most famous courts in the world can only stand him in good stead.

“It shows that I’m able to compete with the best in the world,” he said. “What I take from that match is that when I walked out, I kind of felt comfortable. I wasn’t starstruck or anything like that. I walked out onto the court and I felt like, you know, it was just another match for me.

“That’s something I think that with maturity and experience over the years, it comes to you naturally now, and it came to me naturally those two times. Also stepping out on Wimbledon Centre court for the first time, playing him and playing the way I had on a surface that over the years hasn’t been my favourite, shows the level is there.”

Speaking after his second-round win, Popyrin revealed that he’s never even set foot on Arthur Ashe Stadium court, not even as a fan. Scheduled for the first match in the evening session on Friday, he should have time to practice beforehand and get a feel of conditions on what’s a cavernous court. That can only help.

Djokovic struggling with stomach issue?

As Sasa Ozmo reported, Djokovic said he had been struggling with a stomach issue in his second-round match, which may have contributed to his poor serving.

If that continues, then Popyrin will know he has a chance, even if he admits he doesn’t actually enjoy playing against Djokovic.

“I enjoy the moment, playing on a big court,” he said. “But he’s obviously the greatest of all time and a really tough opponent. I don’t think anybody enjoys playing him.

“I had chances in both matches and it’s just a matter of taking those chances and playing well on the big points. If I can do that, who knows what can happen.”