Can Paolini pull off an upset of epic proportions on Saturday?
We break down Jasmine Paolini’s path to victory in the women’s Roland-Garros final on Saturday against top seed Iga Swiatek
Federico Pestellini / Panoramic
A fortnight ago, many were picking Iga Swiatek to be in the Roland-Garros final. Few were expecting her opponent to be Jasmine Paolini, however.
Even after winning a maiden WTA 1000 title in Dubai this year, the Italian has been overshadowed by the Tour’s bigger names.
Coming into Paris, Elena Rybakina, Coco Gauff and Aryna Sabalenka were the names tossed around to rival Swiatek at Roland-Garros, not Paolini. And yet, Paolini sent one of those names packing in the quarter-finals, before defeating Sabalenka’s conqueror in the semi-finals.
She now finds herself facing the most daunting task in women’s tennis currently: playing Swiatek on clay.
The Pole is entering Rafael Nadal territory, having won 31 of her past 32 matches in Paris. Standing between her and a fourth Roland-Garros title at the age of 23 is a woman who is making her first Grand Slam final.
Can Paolini pull off what would be an upset of epic proportions against Swiatek in the women’s final on Saturday? Or will this match unfold as everyone is anticipating: a one-sided victory for the top seed?
The key for Paolini: go for broke on the forehand
There’s one clear path to victory for Paolini, however unlikely it may be.
Naomi Osaka showed us the blueprint in the second round, when she came within inches of defeating Swiatek in their 7-6(1), 1-6, 7-5 match.
Paolini will need to hit through Swiatek. She can’t rely on the world No 1 making mistakes, nor are there any glaring weaknesses she can look to target through clever maneuvering of rallies.
Instead, she’ll simply need to go for broke on her forehand, and hope that she finds her range. Anything less, any degree of tentativeness, and Swiatek will pounce.
Thankfully, Paolini’s forehand is an excellent weapon, despite her small stature of five feet, four inches. The Italian hits a hard, heavy ball, as witnessed in her victories over Rybakina and Mirra Andreeva in her last two matches.
Against Andreeva, 13 of Paolini’s 14 winners came from the forehand side, entirely dictating the match. In the quarter-finals, she found similar success in the two sets she won, striking 12 forehand winners to hit through the Kazakh.
“My goal is to step on court Saturday and try to enjoy the match,” Paolini said ahead of the women’s final. “To enjoy that moment and to try to play a good match and to make a good performance on court.”
If she’s to have any chance of success on Saturday, that needs to involve her forehand performing.
The more likely scenario: Swiatek’s rushing dominance
What’s more likely to occur on Saturday, is the fate that each of Swiatek’s opponents have suffered at Roland-Garros this year.
The Pole plays a suffocating, smothering game of taking the ball early, that leaves her rival on the other side of the net with far less time than they’re used to. Pair this with heavy shot-making, consistency from the baseline and a dynamic net game, and you’ve got a daunting challenge.
Just ask Gauff, who was brought to tears by Swiatek’s play in their semi-final. While a dispute over a call is what caused the 20-year-old to cry, she revealed afterwards that it was, “just overwhelming of everything,” which led to her tears.
It’s easy to go into a match against Swiatek with a plan of hitting through her. It’s another thing to go and execute that when you’re rushed and constantly on the back foot.
Swiatek said it best when asked about her preparation for facing Paolini. “I haven’t watched her matches, so there’s not a lot for me to say,” she said. “I’ll just focus on myself and prepare tactically and try to be consistent with my tactic.”
For the world No 1, it doesn’t matter who’s on the other side of the net. She’ll be taking the ball early, making her opponents feel uncomfortable, and more than likely, blowing them away on the scoreboard.
Add in the nerves of Paolini playing in a maiden Grand Slam final, plus the glaring weakness of her underpowered serve, and this match could be over in less time than it takes to bake a decent cake.
