Why Nadal – De Minaur is a decisive test for Rafa (even if he loses)

Rafael Nadal does not consider himself the favorite in his second round against Alex de Minaur in Madrid. A good fight, until the end, would be enough for him to have the feeling of progress.

Nadal Madrid Open 2024 Panoramic / Panoramic

Cédric Rouquette

April 26, 2024

A recent statistical study that Tennis Majors conducted with Tennis Viz shows that Rafael Nadal was already playing at Top 10 standards when he resumed competition in Brisbane in January of this year. However, Brisbane is precisely Rafa’s nightmare and worst-case scenario at the moment as he is attempting, at almost 38 years old, his last comeback.

Brisbane, in January, was supposed to be a week of recovery in Australia, after a year of absence. Once there, Nadal saw himself stronger than he was in reality, and his body broke down yet again, as he admitted on Thursday. If Nadal plays in Madrid this weekend with extreme caution about his ability to perform, it is because he feels he is walking on a tightrope, close to reliving such a nightmare.

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Nadal – he has been hammering the point home since his arrival in the Spanish capital – only feels good on the court if he can defend his chances without reservation. He has probably not experienced this feeling since the start of 2022, before his rib injury in the final at Indian Wells and a season on clay that he eventually finished on his crutches, not without winning Roland-Garros. His goal, with each passing day, is to know if it will be possible again.

The slide. The anticipation. The guile. 🧠@RafaelNadal playing tennis on a clay court will always be special to witness… pic.twitter.com/fpVOiSlitJ
— Tennis TV (@TennisTV) April 25, 2024

The result of tomorrow’s showdown with De Minaur has nothing to do with that, but the context of the match most certainly will…

“I would be surprised to beat de Minaur on Saturday,” Nadal reiterated on Thursday.

“The goal is be on court. Enjoy as long as possible. I mean, that’s the thing. Try to finish the tournament alive in terms of body issues, and enjoy the fact that I will be able to compete one more time on the professional tour and here at home in Madrid, a place that give me everything, no, in terms of support.

“So let’s see. In this sport, I have said it plenty of times, but it’s true: things can change very quickly, you know. If I am not there to try that change, for sure a change will not happen. So I am here, giving myself a chance. If at some moment my situation improves so I am able to find better feelings in my body, I need to be ready.

“So I don’t lose hope. I just accept the situation that I have today… I’m gonna keep doing the things I need to do to give myself the possibility to be ready if that change happens. In Barcelona, I could no longer fight in the second set. Let’s see if it will be possible this time.”

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In a recent UTS video (the excellent All on the Table dinner, produced by Tennis Majors), De Minaur observed that it took him three matches to stop watching Nadal play, in their head-to-head matches. Since then, he has beaten him every time, including on clay, and is only down 3-2 in their head to head.

“He gives absolutely nothing and will make my task very difficult,” summarizes Nadal. “To win these matches, you have to repeat your efforts for a long time and be totally committed. I’m trying to find out if it’s possible and that’s why I don’t consider myself the favorite.”

“If,” Nadal concludes, “I feel that I can be competitive in two consecutive matches at this level, the week will already be different from the previous one and we can consider this as a step forward. I’m relishing the opportunity to test myself at this level right now.”

In short, Nadal will “try his best”, as he has said throughout his career. And if he passes this round, his fans hope that the Mallorcan will be able to illustrate another of his mantras: “In sport, everything goes quickly.”