More aggressive, more mature, more complete: How Lorenzo Musetti became a threat at Wimbledon

The Italian faces a difficult task against Novak Djokovic on Friday but has given himself a chance

Antoine Couvercelle / Panoramic

July 12, 2024

When Lorenzo Musetti first broke onto the scene, it seemed as if the free-flowing Italian would be best suited to clay courts, hardly surprising since he grew up on the stuff. His one-handed backhand was all the better for having that split-second more on clay.

Until this year, Musetti had played Wimbledon three times with very little success, losing in the first round twice and then the third round last year. On Friday, the 22-year-old takes on seven-time champion Novak Djokovic for a place in the Wimbledon final.

Losses have made him stronger

It’s a remarkable transition from Musetti but one that’s been coming. Watching Matteo Berrettini reach the final in 2021 was an inspiration and perhaps a realisation that he too could do something on grass.

Until this year. he was probably best known for going two sets up on Djokovic that year at Roland-Garros only to retire in the fifth set due to cramps and injury. Three years on, he’s a different animal and though he also lost to Djokovic in five sets at Roland-Garros this year, he was far closer to upsetting the 24-time grand slam champion. He reached the final at Queen’s Club in the run-up to Wimbledon, he’s now ranked 25, due to rise to at least No 16, and it’s clear he has matured, physically and mentally.

“I’ve had many, many tough losses,” he said. “Especially of course the best results before this week were made in French Open. Especially also with Nole two times in the fifth. One time with Stefanos (Tsitsipas) in the fifth. Huge loss against Carlos (Alcaraz) where I didn’t even play my tennis.

“I think I made, of course, a step forward in the maturity and experience,” he said after his five-set win over Taylor Fritz in the quarter-finals. “Probably that losses with all big champions made me think, made me work harder. The win of today is probably the result. I think I can have a chance with Nole the next round.”

Winning more against the first serve

The stats would appear to back him up.

Musetti has been more aggressive than usual, especially on return. When returning his opponent’s first serve, he has won 30 percent or more of points in every round, including 36 percent against the big-serving Fritz. His average of 32 percent puts him tied ninth for this year’s Wimbledon and compares favourably to his average for the rest of the year, of 27 percent. Musetti is also tied eighth for returns in court, at 74 percent (Djokovic is at 70 percent). And against the second serve, he’s winning 51 percent, slightly up on his 2024 average of 50 percent.

He’ s winning a healthy 74 percent of points on his first serve but his second serve points won is truly outstanding. He averages 62 percent across the five matches so far – tied fifth overall here this year (one percentage point behind Djokovic), and in the fourth round he hit 84 percent. To put it into perspective, the average for the tournament is 52 percent.

His own first serve percentage is also up, from 64 percent for the year to 68 percent at this year’s Wimbledon, a key stat because on grass, the first serve carries even more importance.

Turning defence into attack

At one point against Fritz, Musetti said he felt that he could win every point from the baseline, such were the problems he was giving the American due to his variety. The drop shot, which is likely to be an important part of the match for both players on Friday, has been good to the Italian so far. In his five matches, he’s attempted 22 and made 13, always keeping his opponent guessing as to what’s coming.

He also has the highest “steal score” of the players left in the draw, at 37 percent, illustrating how well he wins a point when he’s been on the defensive earlier in the rally. Against Djokovic, who likes to dominate from the first ball, that could be important too.

Of course, against 37-year-old Djokovic, who is such a good front-runner, not to mention a seven-time champion here, victory will be incredibly hard to achieve, but Musetti has put himself in this position having changed his mindset. That gives him a legitimate chance.