Turbulent Monte-Carlo Masters produces more questions than answers – updated following Madrid withdrawals

As the third ATP Masters 1000 tournament of the season drew to a close, the tennis world woke up scratching its head. The Monte-Carlo Masters serves as the majestic curtain-raiser for the European clay-court season and usually sets the tone for the next two months.

However, what transpired over the past week – compelling theatre as it was – has instead left rather more questions than answers for the ATP’s biggest names.

It feels appropriate to begin with the current world No 1. We are no closer to understanding what sort of clay-court season is in store for Novak Djokovic. His early exit in Monte-Carlo at the hands of Lorenzo Musetti was puzzling, not just because of the manner in which Djokovic surrendered a commanding set-and-a-break lead, but also because of his demeanour during the match.

The 22-time Grand Slam champion was unusually rattled following an erroneous line call midway through the second set, something which ultimately threw his concentration enough to hand his young Italian opponent the mental advantage.

As with last year, Djokovic enters this crucial clay-court run without having played in the US in March. It was evident this hurt his early performances on clay last year, with the Serb needing time to build form and rhythm, and it appears the same could be true this season.

If 2022 is anything to go by, then we can expect the enduring quality of the Serb to shine through yet again once he gets some match time under his belt. Despite a slow start last year, Djokovic was on peak form in Madrid (only losing narrowly to a scintillating Carlos Alcaraz), before taking the title in Rome.

But as always, Roland-Garros will be the central aim. This year, the stakes are even higher for the Serb as winning the title would mean going clear of Rafael Nadal at the top of the all-time Grand Slam list, with 23. The field this season is more competitive than it has been in years. Still, no one in the tennis world should be writing off Djokovic for the title.

The only real unknown is injury. The world No 1 was seen to have injured his right elbow during a practice session with Matteo Berrettini and wore a protective sleeve on the same arm during his defeat to Musetti. The extent of this injury is the key question here. He lost in the Banja Luka quarter-final to Dusan Lajovic, and promptly withdrew from the Mutua Madrid Open. Time is running out for him to get his balance on clay before the French Open.

With Nadal, the picture is no more straightforward in that we know almost nothing about the Spaniard’s fitness or form.

Since being knocked out of the Australian Open in the second round with a hip injury that left him limping towards an early exit, we have seen precious little of Nadal other than the occasional social media posting of him taking tentative early steps back onto the practice court.

Rafa’s recent withdrawals from both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona will do little to quell his fans’ fears – and his announcement that he will not be in Madrid either will cause even more consternation. Nadal will still be facing an uphill battle to get his form and fitness in good enough shape to win this year’s French Open, although he did manage to do the same thing last year.

Roland-Garros is the most important title in Rafael Nadal’s glittering career. This season, a 15th triumph would also move him one clear of Djokovic in the Grand Slam tally. The stakes couldn’t be much higher.

Most feel he still has at least one more French Open title in him. Another victory this season would be astonishing, given the decimation of his year so far.

But if there is one universal rule in tennis, it is this: you never, under any circumstances, write off Nadal at the French Open.

Like his compatriot, Carlos Alcaraz was also missing from Monte-Carlo. Unlike Nadal, however, Alcaraz will be back in action this week in Barcelona and has had a superb season so far. The fact that he missed Monte-Carlo is probably of little significance – last year he lost in the first round before going on to secure back-to-back wins in Barcelona and Madrid.

Despite an injury-affected season which also saw him miss the Australian Open, Alcaraz already has two titles under his belt. Crucially, one of these was on clay. The manner in which he bounced back from a spell out of action is simply further testament to this young man’s already formidable reputation as one the sport’s very best. Backing that up with a breathtaking victory at Indian Wells dispelled any last murmurings that recurring injury could derail his season or career.

Roland-Garros will be the title he most craves over the next eight weeks. It is a huge target. Not only will it deliver a second Grand Slam title for the young Spaniard, but it will also guarantee a return to the world No 1 ranking.

Daniil Medvedev, as he himself has admitted, has never really taken to the clay. However, this does not dim his desire to master the surface he most struggles with.

After a stunning hard-court stretch in which the Russian won four out of five tournaments – and 25 out of 26 matches – all eyes were on whether the hard-court maestro could replicate this kind of form of the red clay of Europe.

Early indications in Monte-Carlo were positive, as he overcame Lorenzo Sonego and then Alexander Zverev en route to yet another Masters 1000 quarter-final. However, Medvedev is still not the player on clay that he is on hard surfaces. His defeat to Holger Rune served as a timely reminder of that fact.

But there is no doubt that Medvedev is enjoying the form of his life right now. His confidence will remain sky-high, regardless of the results that come over the next two months. At Roland-Garros, Medvedev will have nothing to lose and everything to gain. He will be keen to make a powerful statement that he is a threat on clay.

The key question is whether his game style will allow him to truly threaten the clay-court elite.

Stefanos Tsitsipas had a disappointing Monte-Carlo campaign in the sense that he failed to defend his two-time defending champion’s status. The manner in which he succumbed to defeat against Taylor Fritz was puzzling, and somewhat mirrors his season so far.

The Greek’s superb run to the Australian Open final felt like a turning point for Stefanos. But results since then have been disappointing.

Roland-Garros – and the clay-court season in general – will be crucial for Tsitsipas to get his season back on track. The European clay is usually a happy hunting ground for the talented Greek, but questions remain over his current form heading into a pivotal part of the season.

There is one player who used Monte-Carlo to lay down a firm marker of where his game is at – Andrey Rublev.

The Russian’s first Masters 1000 title was fully deserved. It was a week of the brilliant attacking tennis we all expect from Rublev, but with an added sense of steeliness that the world No 6 has often lacked in the past. Nowhere was this more evident than in the final, when he overturned a 4-1, 30-0 deficit to Rune in the final set, saving two break points, and went on to win the match.

Few would have chosen Rublev as the Monte-Carlo champion at the start of the week. Given that this is his first Masters 1000 title, the question is how he deals with the aftermath of such a milestone success.

Having made yet another major quarter-final in Australia, only to be blown away by Djokovic, Roland Garros will be a vital opportunity for Rublev to back up his biggest achievement by setting a new milestone.

With new success comes renewed pressure. After the week he has had in Monte-Carlo, anything other than the semi-finals will likely be viewed as a disappointment for Rublev.

Monte-Carlo has only raised more questions about Casper Ruud’s form this year.

Having won the title on the clay of Estoril the week prior, Ruud came into Monte-Carlo looking to use a surface he thrives on to rectify a patchy start to the season. Losing to Jan-Lennard Struff in the third round in Monaco was a big blow, ending Ruud’s nine-match winning streak on clay.

After a break-out second half to 2022, this year his form has faltered alarmingly. Roland-Garros will be key for Ruud to reassert himself as one the sport’s best players. As well as wanting to make a statement, Ruud will also want to defend the ranking points he won last year by reaching the final.

Anything less than a quarter-final finish will be a failure, and the pressure is on the young Norwegian to show that last season’s success was not simply an aberration.

Monte-Carlo was a strange tournament for Holger Rune in many ways. On the one hand, it was a wonderful achievement to reach his second Masters 1000 final, with impressive wins over Jannik Sinner and Medvedev en route to Sunday’s showpiece.

However, Rune will be bitterly disappointed to have surrendered a 4-1 lead in the final set against Rublev. On top of this, due to Berrettini’s withdrawal in the third round, the teenage Dane only had to play three matches to reach the final. Despite great tennis last week, the jury is still out on what sort of impact Rune will have on the clay this year.

Following a stunning milestone win at the Paris Masters last autumn, Rune’s season so far has been impressively solid, if nothing spectacular.

At such a young age, this is hardly a criticism. At only 19, Rune already expects so much of himself. Roland-Garros will be a very important tournament for him. The Dane is brilliant on clay, and reached the quarter-finals of the French Open last year. He will be eager to replicate this achievement at the very least, but will believe he can go further.

The talent is there, but after such a collapse in the Monte-Carlo final, there may yet be some question marks around the mental impact this has left on the young Dane.

What next?

Monte-Carlo has offered little information as to how the next two months will pan out. But whichever way you cut it, this year’s Roland-Garros looks set to be the most open it has been in many years. The clay-court season has arrived, and it is likely to be one of the most intriguing we have seen in some time.