No Alcaraz, no Sinner, no Djokovic – another surprise Masters 1000 champion is coming to Madrid

Daniil Medvedev – not exactly a clay guru – is the only top 5 player left in a wide open Madrid draw as of Wednesday.

Felix Auger-Aliassime, Madrid Open, 2024

May 2, 2024

And then there were five… and they aren’t who we thought they were going to be.

Without any of the ATP’s top three players – and zero former champions – in the mix as championship weekend approaches in Madrid, a surprise winner will once again take home the title in the second clay-court Masters 1000 event of 2024.

Five-time champion Rafael Nadal bid farewell to Madrid on Tuesday night, a day before defending two-time champion Carlos Alcaraz gave way to Andrey Rublev. Three-time champ Novak Djokovic pulled out of the tournament before it began, and two-time champion Alexander Zverev was rudely dispatched by Francisco Cerundolo in the round of 16.

It was shaping up to be a great opportunity for Jannik Sinner to win another big title, but the Italian ended up pulling out of his quarter-final clash with Felix Auger-Aliassime, sending the Canadian through to the semis.

Where does it leave us? If you thought Stefanos Tsitsipas’ triumph in Monte-Carlo was a surprise, Sunday’s coronation in Madrid could be even more of a stunner.

Biggest potential surprise: Felix Auger-Aliassime

The Canadian has completely dropped off the radar in 2024, reaching just one 250-level semi-final prior to this week in Madrid. News of Sinner’s withdrawal propels the world No 35 into the semis, but he’ll still have to win two more matches to earn what would be his maiden Masters 1000 triumph – on his least favorite surface.

Auger-Aliassime will face either Daniil Medvedev or Jiri Lehecka in the semis.

Second biggest potential surprise: Jiri Lehecka

Lehecka’s having a fantastic season, but he’s relatively inexperienced at the 1000 level, having entered Madrid with a 10-12 lifetime record and a quarter-final (this year at Indian Wells) as his best Masters result. The Czech is not exactly a ringer on clay, either – just 15-14 ahead of his quarter-final with Medvedev on Thursday – but he did take down the King of Clay in the round of 16 (that can’t be bad for the confidence).

Nadal and Lehecka Madrid — Zuma/Panoramic

Third biggest potential surprise: Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz likes the fast-playing, high-bouncing conditions in Madrid, but he’s not exactly a player you would expect to make a deep run at a prestigious European clay-court a tournament like Madrid. That said, the American has been strong thus far, and he’s into the semi-finals at Madrid for the first time.

Like Auger-Aliassime and Lehecka, Fritz has yet to reach a Masters final, let alone win a title at the 1000 level.

Fourth biggest potential surprise: Andrey Rublev

Now we are into the possible, and probable winners. Rublev won his maiden major title last year at Monte-Carlo, and has a game that is suited well for clay. The Russian came in to Madrid cold, but we can safely assume that he’s hot now, and he has a three-set win over two-time champion Carlos Alcaraz to prove it.

Rublev faces Fritz for a spot in the final in the lower half of the draw – he won the pair’s only clay-court meeting en route to the Monte-Carlo title last year.

Smallest potential surprise: Daniil Medvedev

And finally, the man with the nicest pedigree of the five, even if he does detest the clay more than the others. Medvedev, who won the Rome Masters title last year, is certainly capable of creating a surprise on clay. He loves to play possum on the surface, ranting about how he feels like a dog in the dirt when he plays on clay. But when the chips are down it is the man with six Masters 1000 titles to his name that would surprise us the least if he held up the trophy on Sunday in Madrid.

Medvedev faces Lehecka in quarter-final action on Thursday, and if he can prevail he’d face Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals. Not the worst route, given the other options…