ATP Finals qualification scenarios: De Minaur overtakes Rublev; Dimitrov, Tsitsipas out of Race

Losses in the Paris Masters quarter-finals ended Grigor Dimitrov and Stefanos Tsitsipas’ chances of making the ATP Finals. Andrey Rublev’s early exit from Paris allowed Alex de Minaur to enter the top eight

Alex de Minaur in Vienna (Gepa/Panoramic)

Bren Gray

November 2, 2024

Ayush Vashistha

With Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud losing in the second round on Tuesday at the Paris Masters, the already tight Race to Turin has burst into life.

Five players — Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz — have all qualified for the ATP Finals in November. That leaves three more spots open with five players (in Race top 15 after Fritz) fighting for a berth in the year-end finals still. Three of those, including Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud, and Alex de Minaur, currently sit in qualifying positions.

Notably, Djokovic, Ruud, and De Minaur, are either not playing in Paris or have already been eliminated. That means over the coming days, there are plenty of opportunities for a reshuffle in the Race to Turin.

Here’s how the Race currently stands:

Novak Djokovic (3,910 points)
Casper Ruud (3,855 points)
Alex de Minaur (3,745 points)
Andrey Rublev (3,720 points)
Grigor Dimitrov (Out after QF loss at Paris Masters)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Out after QF loss at Paris Masters)
Tommy Paul (Out after 1R loss at Paris Masters)

Holger Rune (3,025 points)
Jack Draper (Out after 3R loss at Paris Masters)
Hubert Hurkacz (Out after 1R loss at Paris Masters)

So what does this mean for each player’s qualification chances? Here’s a quick rundown of the different ATP Finals qualification scenarios:

Andrey Rublev

Rublev occupied the eighth position before coming into the Paris Masters but the No 6 seed put his chances in jeopardy by producing a poor show against Argentine Francisco Cerundolo, falling 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5).

De Minaur used the opportunity and overtook the Russian to enter the ATP Finals qualification octet by finishing the 2024 Paris Masters as a quarter-finalist. Had the Aussie made the final in Paris, he would have automatically qualified for the year-end championships.

Thus, Rublev is afloat in the Race to Turin still. He’s now off to Metz for the Moselle Open and should win the title to remain among the probables for the ATP Finals, meanwhile praying De Minaur doesn’t go deep at Belgrade Open.

Holger Rune

The task is simple for Rune: he needs to win the title in Paris, then head to an ATP 250 next week and win that too. Do so, he will give himself a chance of qualification, depending on how other results go next week.

Max points after Paris Masters: 3,625

Dimitrov, Tsitsipas out of the race

Bulgarian Grigor Dimitrov needed to at least reach the semi-finals in Paris to stand a chance of make it to Turin but a loss to Russian Karen Khachanov (6-2, 6-3) in the quarter-finals has ended his hopes.

Similarly, Greek Stefanos Tsitsipas was required to go as far as the final at the concluding ATP Masters 1000 of the season. However, Germany’s Alexander Zverev handed him a straight-set loss (7-5, 6-4) in the last-eight in Paris, throwing him out of the Race.

This is the first time since 2018 that Tsitsipas won’t compete at the year-end championships.