Alcaraz v Sinner – why it’s such a fierce rivalry already

In this particular instance, nobody can be accused of creating antagonism – because of the simple fact that none exists. Let’s face it: you could scratch away for days and you wouldn’t find the slightest hint of any aggression between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who will be at the (eagerly awaited) BNP Paribas Open semi-finals on Saturday. The two young men are good friends, and there’s no mistaking the sincerity of their good feelings.

In purely sporting terms, however, their rivalry is undeniable. At the age of 20 and 22 respectively, the Spaniard and the Italian have already faced each other seven times on the ATP circuit, and eight if you include a curtain-raiser in the first round of the Alicante Challenger in 2019. Alcaraz, not even 16 at the time and making his debut on the circuit, won in three sets, a fine performance against a player already ranked 319 in the world.

Since then, each of their duels has become a growing event, from the very first on the ATP tour circuit, played on Court 1 at Paris-Bercy in 2021, to the very last, a few months ago, in the semi-finals of Beijing. In between, the two men also met at Wimbledon, Umag and the US Open in 2022, then at Indian Wells and Miami in 2023. Result: 4-3 for Sinner (4-4 including Alicante), who has taken the last two meetings.

That’s a lot, in fact, for two such young champions. But it’s not so much quantity that defines the strength of a rivalry. It’s the quality, and here too, Sinner and Alcaraz set the bar very high when, in the quarter-finals of the US Open 2022, they fought a titanic battle – let’s not mince words, one of the greatest in the tournament’s history – lasting 5 hours 15 minutes, which Alcaraz concluded at 2.50am by saving a match point, before going on to win his first Grand Slam title and the world No 1 ranking.

In an interview with Eurosport a few days later, Dominic Thiem commented: “These guys are changing the game in their own way, in terms of speed and aggression. Throughout the match, no matter what the score is and even on very important points, they’re committing themselves, they’re taking huge risks and I think we’ve never seen that too much in the past. Even Roger, Rafa and Novak play a little bit safer.”

At the time, Alcaraz had established himself as the new king of world tennis, but it was clear that beyond Novak Djokovic, who remains – let’s not forget – the world No 1, Sinner would be the one who, at least in the short term, would pose him the most problems. This was confirmed by the Italian’s back-to-back victories in Miami and Beijing in 2023, even though it was Alcaraz who had won their semi-final in Indian Wells.

If Sinner is such a nuisance to Alcaraz, it’s of course because he’s one of the very best players in the world, and possibly even the best at the start of 2024. But it’s also because he’s probably the only one capable of standing up to the Spaniard in terms of shot quality, and therefore of playing the game against him. Which is all the more important when you remember Alexander Zverev’s statement after dominating him at the start of the year in Melbourne: ” I was rushing him quite a lot. I was playing extremely aggressive. Kind of taking the racquet out of his hands. Because to be honest, you have to do that against him. If you let him control the points, let him control the game, and the pace of the game, he’s unbeatable. He’s the best player in the world when it comes to that.”

A closer look at their statistics reveals two things: with the exception of their semi-final meeting in Indian Wells last year, Sinner is most of the time the player with the most winners. And he’s also the one who systematically (at least up to now) comes to the net the most often, despite the fact that volleying isn’t cited as his main strength.

That said, since we’re talking about modern tennis, the serve/return dialogue unsurprisingly remains the main key to their confrontations: every time, the winner of the match was the one who scored the best percentage of points behind his serve, first and second ball included (generally between 60 and 65%), but also the best percentage of points on return (between 35 and 40% for the winner, on average).
Of course, what happens on one day might not happen the next, and Sinner is obviously expecting his rival to come up with a tactical response to his two previous disappointments.

“For sure he might change a couple of things trying to beat me,” said the Italian after beating Jiri Lehecka in the quarter-finals at Indian Wells. “I have to be ready. If he beats me, you have to work again on little details. I think that’s really good and nice to see.

“I reckon that’s what the past Big 3 or Big 4 or have done in a similar way. We try to do the same, no? But whoever is going to be the next, you know, top players, we don’t know yet because, you know, we are all so young. If we see every tournament is a little bit different. But yeah, for sure, I think that’s also exciting part.”

“I don’t know how I’m gonna approach the game, how I’m gonna approach the match,” said Alcaraz for his part after his own win over Alexander Zverev. “He’s the best tennis player in the world right now, without a doubt.

“I mean, I hear some declarations from Tommy Paul that was funny for me, that he’s absolutely naked right now! He’s playing unbelievable, no losses this year. I really enjoy watching him play. So it’s going to be a really difficult match. It’s going to be a big challenge for me and see what is my level, you know, facing him.

“The last, I think the last two matches that I have played against him I lost, so I have to adjust a little bit my game and let’s see how it’s gonna be.

“But for sure it’s gonna be the most difficult match that I’m gonna play this year.”

It’s a match with double stakes: if he loses, Alcaraz will also be stripped of his position as world No 2 behind Djokovic. And he would lose the upper hand in his rivalry with Sinner, this time quite clearly. But certainly not definitively, as these two look set to enchant world tennis for some years to come.

The seven duels (so far) of Alcaraz and Sinner

Rolex Paris Masters 2021 (second round, indoor) : Alcaraz 7-6(1), 7-5
Wimbledon 2022 (quarter-final, grass) : Sinner 6-1, 6-4, 6-7(8), 6-3
Umag 2022 (final, clay) : Sinner 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-1
US Open 2022 (quarter-final, hard) : Alcaraz 6-3, 6-7(7), 6-7(0), 7-5, 6-3
Indian Wells 2023 (semi-final, hard) : Alcaraz 7-6(4), 6-3
Miami 2023 (semi-final, hard) : Sinner 6-7(4), 6-4, 6-2
Beijing 2023 (semi-final, hard) : Sinner 7-6(4), 6-1

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