Sinner and the others : a statistical analysis of 2024’s Indian Wells semi-finalists
British start-up TennisViz, that specialises in the statistical analysis of matches, has shared its data with us on the four men’s Indian Wells semi-finalists
Indian Wells 2024 semi-finalists
There’s the feeling, which is always subjective. Then there’s analysis, which is purely objective. Here, the data officially confirms the general impression – Jannik Sinner was the dominant man in the first week of Indian Wells, where he will faces Carlos Alcaraz in a mouth-watering semi-final, while the other semi-final sees Daniil Medvedev up against Tommy Paul.
The analyses, made available here by TennisViz in collaboration with data from Tennis Data Innovations, reveal dominance from the Italian in most of the sectors analysed. The Australian Open champion has the best forehand, backhand and serve, which gives him a huge advantage.
The only area in which he is slightly lacking in Indian Wells is the comeback, where he is (only just) behind the other three semi-finalists, and also behind his own statistics from the past year.
shot quality analysis
The “shot quality” is rated by TennisViz on a scale of 1 to 10. It is calculated according to a clever algorithm mixing speed, spin, depth and lateral placement of the shots.
We’re not surprised to see Sinner dominate three of the four sectors, but we’re a little more surprised to see Medvedev in last position on serve. It is even below the overall average rating of the main circuit (the “tour average”). Apart from his forehand, the Russian, who recalled his recent difficulties on serve before the tournament, is generally below his usual standards in Indian Wells. At least, for now.
Forehand: Sinner (9.3), Alcaraz (9), Medvedev (8.6), Paul (6.8)
Backhand: Sinner (8.6), Paul (7.7), Alcaraz (7.7), Medvedev (7.4)
Service: Sinner (8), Alcaraz (7.9), Paul (7.8), Medvedev (7.4)
Back: Alcaraz (7.8), Paul (7.5), Medvedev (7.3), Sinner (7.1)
analysis of game situations
If we now look at the game situations, Sinner also dominates three of the four sectors analysed. These sectors are: “attack”, i.e. the number of moves made in an offensive position, “conversion”, i.e. the number of points won when the player had the advantage in the rally and “baseline battles”, i.e. the baseline rallies won.
Alcaraz, who is the one who best compares with Sinner if we synthesise all these analyses, is in the lead by a large margin in the “steal” sector, which can described as the points won after being in a defensive situation. Again, this is not very surprising given his incredible qualities as a counter-attacker.
More generally, the four Indian Wells semi-finalists stand out for the quality of their baseline play, and for their conversion when they are in an attacking position – these are the two sectors in which they are all above the general average of the circuit.
In attack: Sinner (26.5%), Alcaraz (25.5%), Paul (25.3%), Medvedev (20.8%)
Conversion: Sinner (76.1%), Alcaraz (74%), Medvedev (73.9%), Paul (70%)
Turnaround: Alcaraz (47%), Medvedev (39%), Sinner (36%), Paul (32%)
Baseline: Sinner (63%), Medvedev (61.5%), Alcaraz (61%), Paul (52%)
