ATP Finals qualification scenarios: Eight fighting for three spots

Alex de Minaur and Grigor Dimitrov are well-placed to make a move in the Race to Turin after Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev’s early exit from the Paris Masters, while Draper and Rune need a miracle

Alex de Minaur in Vienna (Gepa/Panoramic)

Bren Gray

October 30, 2024

With Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud losing in the second round on Tuesday at the Paris Masters, the already tight Race to Turin has burst into life.

Five players — Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Daniil Medvedev and Taylor Fritz — have all qualified for the ATP Finals in November. That leaves eight players (in Race top 15 after Fritz) who can potentially qualify for the year-end finals still, with just three spots remaining in Turin.

The three who currently sit in qualifying positions — Novak Djokovic, Casper Ruud and Andrey Rublev — are either not playing in Paris, or have already been eliminated. That means over the coming days, there are plenty of opportunities for a reshuffle in the Race to Turin.

Here’s how the Race currently stands:

Novak Djokovic (3,910 points)
Casper Ruud (3,855 points)
Andrey Rublev (3,720 points)
Alex de Minaur (3,595 points)
Grigor Dimitrov (3,150 points)
Tommy Paul (Out after 1R loss at Paris Masters)
Stefanos Tsitsipas (3,065 points)

Holger Rune (2,675 points)
Hubert Hurkacz (Out after 1R loss at Paris Masters)
Jack Draper (2,635 points)

So what does this mean for each player’s qualification chances? Here’s a quick rundown of the different ATP Finals qualification scenarios:

Alex de Minaur

The Australian is in the best position of the chasers. Should he make the final in Paris, he will automatically qualify for the year-end championships. Lose in the semi-finals, and he’ll still have leap-frogged Rublev, Djokovic and Ruud, while a quarter-final loss will get him up one spot into eighth, assuming one of the other contenders don’t win the title.

Max points after Paris Masters: 4,545

Grigor Dimitrov

The Bulgarian is in a similar position to De Minaur, in that a victory in Paris (runner-up in 2023) will ensure him a spot in Turin. However, an exit any earlier than the semi-finals, and Dimitrov will be out of contention. Make the last four, or lose in the final, and he’ll remain in contention, but will likely need more points from one of next week’s ATP 250s (Belgrade and Moselle).

Max points after Paris Masters: 4,140

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas’ prospects are slightly bleaker than De Minaur and Dimitrov’s. He needs to make the final at the very minimum, just to ensure he enters next week with a chance of qualifying. Win the title, however, and he won’t be assured of a spot in Turin, but will have moved ahead of Rublev, Ruud and Djokovic, and will be in good shape to qualify.

Max points after Paris Masters: 3,965

Holger Rune and Jack Draper

The task is simple for both Rune and Draper: they need to win the title in Paris, then head to an ATP 250 next week and win that too. Do so, and provided that Dimitrov doesn’t make the semi-finals in the bottom half of the Paris draw, they’ll give themselves a chance of qualification, depending on how other results go next week.

Max points after Paris Masters: 3,625 (Rune); 3,585 (Draper)