Analysis: Serve, return and attacking prowess: How Shapovalov came good in Dallas
The Canadian hit a hot streak as he claimed his biggest title yet and has been improving across the board since last year’s US Open
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Denis Shapovalov reminded the world – and possibly himself – just how good he can be when he’s on his game as he won the biggest title of his career at the Dallas Open on Sunday.
The Canadian beat three top-10 players in all, Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul and in the final, Casper Ruud, to win just his third ATP Tour title, completing a perfect week and ensuring he moved up 22 places to No 32 in the world rankings, his highest spot since September 2023.
After a difficult time with injuries in 2023 – he missed six months due to a knee injury – he had shown signs of form last autumn, reaching the final in Belgrade. In Dallas, though, he took his game up several levels, serving brilliantly, attacking relentlessly and making more returns than usual.
Improved serve STATS
The Shapovalov serve has been his strength and his Achilles heel in the past. The left-hander can hit incredible angles on the ad court, but he’s been prone to double faults for much of his career. Even at the Australian Open last month, he hit 15 double faults in exiting in round two and his numbers have consistently been in double figures.
In Dallas, his serve was a weapon. He cut down the double faults, hitting 18 in total across his five matches, never more than five and just two in the final. He hit 38 aces in all and was far more consistent and dominant than of late.
Shapovalov won more than 70 percent of points on first serve in every match and just as importantly, had a high first-serve percentage in four matches, peaking at 71 percent in round three against Taylor Fritz, dropping below 60 percent just once (in the quarters, at 56 percent).
He was equally impressive on second serve, too. His lowest win percentage was 46 percent, in the semi-finals, while he was twice above 60 percent (65 percent in the final and 67 percent in the quarters). Those are the kind of stats that will put him in good stead in any week.
Outperforming Tour averageS
According to TennisViz, Shapovalov exceeded the ATP Tour average in six of their eight categories; serve quality, return quality, forehand quality, backhand quality, conversion score and steal score, as shown below.
Shapovalov’s game has always been one of fine margins. On a bad week, everything goes out, on a good one, he’s almost unstoppable. In Dallas, “in attack”, he hit 45 percent of his shots within 1 metre of the sideline, beating his own average of 39 percent and the Tour average of 36 percent.
His serve accuracy was also improved, averaging 49cm from the sideline, better than his own average of 56cm and the Tour average of 58cm).
Big improvement since US Open
The results may have been hit and miss, but the signs have been there for Shapovalov that things are moving in the right direction. That’s probably no surprise as he continues to grow in confidence after overcoming injury.
As the graphic below shows, the Canadian has improved in all eight categories charted by Tennis Viz since the US Open last September, notably on returns, an area of his game that has often left him behind his peers.
BREAKING 12-MATCH DECIDING-SET TIEBREAK LOSING STREAK
Particularly for someone like Shapovalov, who plays so close to the lines, confidence is crucial and his win over Fritz in round three was a big turning point for the week.
Incredibly, Shapovalov had lost 12 deciding-set tiebreaks in a row, dating back to January 2020. Finally getting a W in that column gave him the freedom he needed to open his shoulders and play his best. Sometimes, it’s the smallest of things that can make the difference.
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