WTA Miami: Strong draw for Andreeva, possible Swiatek-Keys quarter-final

As the Miami Open gets underway, a look at the potential paths through the draw for the four tournament favourites

18 March 2025

Zuma/Panoramic

It’s the undisputed leading four women on the WTA so far this year: Aryna Sabalenka, the world number 1, Iga Swiatek; who remains the solid No 2; Madison Keys, the Australian Open champion; and of course Mirra Andreeva, the young breakthrough player of the season who are the logical four favourites for the Miami Open, which gets underway today.

While waiting for the favourites to enter the competition on Thursday, we have reviewed their theoretical route through the draw. Aryna Sabalenka is the only one of the four to be in the safer upper half of the draw. The other three have been placed at the bottom and could therefore challenge each other in the quarter-finals and/or semi-finals.

Main draw at Miami (WTA 1000), where Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Coco Gauff, and Jessica Pegula are the top four seeds. pic.twitter.com/L8qR1IgStg
— WTA Insider (@WTA_insider) March 16, 2025

Sabalenka’s Potential Path

It is not the worst draw. As we have said, she is the only one of the favourites at the top of the table and, if all goes well for her, should get through her first two rounds without too much trouble.

The rest would be tougher for her with a possible round of 16 against the defending champion Danielle Collins, followed by a sequence of Elena Rybakina and Coco Gauff. On paper, it’s very strong. But none of the players mentioned seem to be at their best at the moment.

First round: bye
Second round: Viktoriya Tomova
Third round: Magdalena French (N.29)
Round of 16: Danielle Collins (N.14)
Quarter-finals: Elena Rybakina (N. 7)
Semifinal: Coco Gauff (N.3)
Final: Iga Swiatek (N.2)

Swiatek’s Potential Path

Swiatek has a draw that resembles that of Indian Wells with an opening match against Caroline Garcia and a round of 16 against Karolina Muchova. Two players whose danger is known but against whom she had easily adapted to in California.

Will it be the same in the different conditions of Florida? That is the question and on this will depend largely the difficulty of her draw, which will take the Poel to a quarter-final clash against Keys. If she gets out of this duel in which she would not necessarily be the favourite, she would then have to “fight” another American in the semis, Jessica Pegula, before meeting her rival Sabalenka in the final. In short, we’re not there yet.

Keys Potential Path

As we have just seen, the American is in Swiatek’s part of the draw and she is probably not looking further than this quarter-final. With good reason, by the way, because her way there is not straightforward: an opening against the tangle Elina Avanesyan, followed by Jelena Ostapenka before a potential match against Paula Badosa.

In short, she has had more relaxing stays in Florida.

First round: bye
Second round: Elina Avanesyan
Third round: Jelena Ostapenko (N.25)
Round of 16: Paula Badosa (N.10)
Quarter-finals: Iga Swiatek (No. 2)
Semifinal: Jessica Pegula (N.4)
Final: Aryna Sabalenka (N.1)

Andreeva’s Potential Path

The diamond in the rough of the women’s circuit, who has just made a sensational entrance among the very best in the world by winning back-to-back in Dubai and then in Indian Wells and is on a 12-match winning streak.

The only small “problem” for the Russian: even if she entered the top 10, she is only seeded 11th in Florida and therefore exposed to a top 20 in her second match. In this case, she will face Amanda Anisimova, another talent that was forgotten for a while but who made an interesting return to the forefront of the scene this season with a title in Doha in February. A clash not to be missed.