Why Rublev is favourite to win the UTS Grand Final (despite his form)

Rublev has proven himself a natural fit with the UTS format

Andrey Rublev, UTS Oslo 2024 – © UTS

December 4, 2024

While December is traditionally a quiet month in the tennis calendar, it’s all-go on the UTS Tour, with the format’s Grand Final taking place in London this weekend.

One name towers above all others in the eight-man field competing at the Copper Box Arena, and that’s Andrey Rublev – known as ‘Rublo’ when he’s blasting winners on the UTS court.

This time last year, he was a heavy favourite to win the Grand Final, only to fall in the semi-finals to an inspired Holger Rune. This year, he’s favourite again, and for good reason.

The Russian’s form on the ATP Tour – which has been patchy in 2024 – has typically had little correlation to his performance in UTS. Rublo has won the competition twice (Frankfurt in 2023 and Oslo in 2024) and proven that he’s a natural fit for the UTS format. Here’s why.

1. Experience

Rublev has quickly become one of the most experienced UTS players, and has played more matches than all but one other player at the Grand Final in London.

The 27-year-old holds an impressive 12-4 win-loss rate heading into the season’s final event. He also boasts the record for the most consecutive UTS matches wins (seven), which he put together in 2023.

Many players struggle to adjust to the pace and format differences of UTS. For Rublo, it’s like his second home, and that should show in London.

2. Performance under pressure

One of the quirks of UTS is that a quarter isn’t over until a quarter point has been won.

No other player has come from behind on quarter point to steal a quarter more than once in their UTS careers, but Rublev has done it on three occasions. He simply thrives under the pressure of quarter point, and produces his best tennis.

The Russian also has a 49 percent success rate on bonus cards – not Tour-leading, but fifth overall, showing he handles this form of pressure well too.

3. Serve

Of the top 10 on the ATP Tour, Rublev is not a name that comes to mind as a dominant server. And yet, that’s exactly what he is on the UTS Tour.

He leads the UTS statistics on most serving metrics, including, most importantly, serve percentage in. With just one serve allowed in the format, what Rublev lacks in raw serving power, he makes up for in consistency.

His serve percentage sits at 94 percent – well above the UTS average of 87 percent and ahead of big servers like Alexander Bublik (86 percent). This doesn’t come at the cost of success on serve, either. Even though he hits 10 km/h slower than the Tour average, Rublev leads in terms of points won on serve (eight percent more than average).

4. Speed of format

While Rublev has often seen his results on the ATP Tour suffer due to his tendency to manage his emotions poorly, that’s not the case in UTS. Why? The format simply moves too quickly.

The same levels of frustration may be there when a shot is missed, but the opportunity to ruminate on errors is not, given the short turnaround between points and the non-stop quarter format.

Overall, the UTS style of play is perfectly suited to Rublo, and it’s no wonder that despite his dicey form in 2024, he’s the heavy favourite to take out his third title in London this weekend.